Cyclone level 2 alerts are in effect for the communes of Houaïlou, Kouaoua, Canala, Thio, Yaté, Ouvéa, Lifou, and Maré. 0–9. NB: The ECMWF forecast domain for ACE is from 160˚E to 120˚W. The table is therefore only generally indicative of how many cyclones might be expected for any given island group for the coming season. And cyclone risk was likely to be higher in regions around New Caledonia, Norfolk Island - and to the northwest of New Zealand. Figure 9. It's not yet clear whether any remnants of tropical cyclone Uesi will make it to New Zealand. The chart was processed from data supplied by the US Meteorological Agency (NOAA). Risk of a TC interaction is expected to be higher across the maritime regions around New Caledonia, Norfolk Island and to the northwest of New Zealand. The outlook suggests New Caledonia should prepare for stronger cyclone activity. The new … Classification of synchronous oceanic and atmospheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events for palaeoclimate reconstruction. In the Pacific Islands, please contact your local national meteorological service for information about how this guidance should be interpreted. Leroy, A., and M.C. Malsale, P. 2011. Figure 1. Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook, Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook - October 2020, Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook - October 2019, Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook - October 2018, Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook - October 2017, Air quality monitoring with low-cost sensors, ICES Expert Working Group Meetings – April 2017, http://www.meteo.nc/espro/previcycl/cyclA.php, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67646-7. Renwick, 2015. Tropical cyclones have a significant impact across the Southwest Pacific from year to year. Diamond, H.J., and J.A. Advice. Peak TC season in the SW Pacific Basin is usually from January to March. International Journal of Climatology, 35: 676-686. doi: 10.1002/joc.4012. More about tropical storms According to its current predictions, Tonga should expect one or two cyclones for the upcoming cyclone season (December – April). See https://tcoutlook.com/swpacific/ for more details related to this part of the outlook. Individuals present in New Caledonia are advised to monitor local weather reports and follow all instructions as issued by local authorities (e.g. Tropical cyclones have a significant impact across the Southwest Pacific, with the season officially starting in November and lasting until the end of April. Steering winds are expected to be displaced south of normal, which may lead to reduced shear and increased retention of cyclone strength in the north Tasman Sea upon extra-tropical transition. Cyclones can have a devastating impact. Unpublished MSc Thesis, University of the South Pacific, 155 Pages. Normal or slightly reduced activity is expected for Tonga, Wallis & Futuna, and Samoa. Table 4: Expected TC counts including expected range (95% confidence intervals (CI)) for the 2020/21 Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone season (October 2020 update), difference from long term average TC count (1981-2010). Heading back to the SW Pacific Islands from Australia. Supplied New Zealand and New Caledonia’s tropical cyclone risk … [39] Several townships within the north-western parts of the archipelago suffered from power outages, disruption to water supply and telecommunications, while some landslides were reported on coastal roads. Cyclone Yasa aims to New Zealand, Zazu shifts from Fiji southeastward. However, New Caledonia does experience a cyclone season from the end of November to May, with February to April being the most dangerous time. TCs in the Southwest Pacific usually develop between November and April, but occasionally they develop in October and May, and very rarely in June – August. This seasonal outlook is for normal to below normal activity in terms of overall named cyclone systems in the region. New Caledonia is an overseas territory of France, and it is made up of a main The new model could improve early warnings, support advanced disaster management preparedness and save lives during the Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone season.. New Zealand also faces a higher risk of being battered by ex-tropical cyclones. Cyclone Uesi is Tracking just west of New Caladonia gusty and strong winds and large waves will better the island. On average, at least one ex-tropical cyclone passes within 550km of New Zealand each year. Wheeler, 2008. Expected TC counts are summarised for the Southwest Pacific (panel a) and island-scale and sub-regional locations (panel b). The domain for the seasonal outlook encompasses a basin that is defined by climatological properties of TC occurrences rather than geopolitical or meteorological service administrative boundaries (Diamond et al., 2012). The year label notes the first month in the analogue year selection (i.e. Increased frequency and more intense TC activity can be expected during the MJO 6-7 paired phase (Diamond and Renwick, 2015). The cyclone season in the Pacific is usually between October and May, but cyclones can occur at other times. It was also too early to tell whether any possible remnants could impact New Zealand, but he said there was no threat to the country this week. Indications for upcoming TC activity based on these joint methods that cover the SW Pacific basin for the 2020/21 season are stated in the “ICU Consensus” column and are also shown in Figure 1. Tropical cyclone season is upon us and a new storm is brewing in the South Pacific.. 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